Assessment of the Flood and Drought Occurrence Using Statistically Downscaled Local Climate Models: A Case Study in Langat River Basin, Malaysia

Abstract Climate change is a complex and multi-layer issue with global local entanglement. In this study, Langat River Basin chosen. Secondary data was used including the historical flood drought event reports, Standardized Precipitation Index-1 Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) along Australian Community Simulator Coupled (ACCESS CM-2). These were to determine monthly precipitation risk based on five regions of Basin. The CanESM2 ACCESS CM-2 RCP 4.5 8.5 scenarios downscaled bias corrected for study. reliability these models then analyzed Pearson correlation probability density function (PDF). future risks from year 2020 2100 predicted using most reliable climate model hazard thresholds. scenario identified have moderate relationship trend in outcomes verified by analyzing PDF curve between precipitation. result shows that determined r = 0.30, whereas highest similarity 98.63 % 2006 2018 period. consistent medium emission coupled increasing mitigation efforts Malaysia. Furthermore, assessment show occurrence rate Central, Northern, Southern, Western, Eastern region as 41.97 %, 60.19 40.23 20.16 34.98% respectively. Central having two incidences (February 2069 February 2099) due extreme dry season